Climate change and building energy consumption

Climate change could have both positive and negative effects on the energy consumption of buildings in the United States. Today, it is not yet clear what the extent of this effect could be at multiple spatial scales, such as buildings, building sectors, cities, and climate zones. More importantly, the associated uncertainty of those effects is not well understood. This knowledge gap makes it difficult to provide reliable projections about what buildings and cities should be prioritized in the race to mitigate climate change.

To address this issue, a hierarchical Bayesian linear model of energy consumption in buildings from close to 100 cities and 14 climate zones across the United States was developed. The model combines new big sources of data, Bayesian statistics, and first-principle models of energy consumption in buildings for the first time. It could be used to forecast the potential impact of climate change in buildings across the United States in the 21st century.

Based on estimates and credible intervals, we conclude that commercial buildings in warm and humid climates should be at the top of the agenda of climate action in the building sector of the United States.