Future air temperature projection for better urban resilience

Researchers from FRS predict air temperature changes for better urban planning in the face of climate change and urbanisation

by Xiong Yap
Projection on the coupling effect of global climate change and urbanization on future air temperature increments
Projection on the coupling effect of global climate change and urbanisation on future air temperature increments

With the onset of climate change, urban air temperature projection is essential to prepare cities for future heat risks. Led by Prof. Yuan Chao, Dr He and Zhang Liqing investigate the coupling effects of climate change and local urbanisation on future air temperature increment and the spatial variation in Singapore.

In their study in Urban Climate, "external pageFuture air temperature projection in high-density tropical cities based on global climate change and urbanisation – a study in Singapore", the researchers looked at the historical air temperature data from Pulau Ubin. Regional climate modelling results were downscaled to district level to investigate the local impact of global climate change in Singapore. The result indicates that the air temperature will increase by 0.4 - 0.6 ◦C in 2030s, 1.2 - 1.6 ◦C in 2050s, and 2.2 - 3.8 ◦C in 2080s at the RCP 8.5 Scenario.

To investigate local urbanisation’s impact on air temperature, urbanisation at districts in the future is anticipated based on master planning for 2030 provided by Urban Redevelopment Authority, Singapore. The future change in temperature at districts was estimated by a linear regression analysis among air temperature, urban morphology, and planning indices. Based on the planned gross plot ratio, the result shows future change in temperature at urban areas could increase 0.05 - 0.79 ◦C in 2030s.

The coupling effect of global climate change and urbanization indicates that the air temperature in 2030 would increase in the range of 0.65 - 1.39 ◦C at different districts in Singapore. Since the difference is caused by divergent master plan, the pre-emptive urban planning and design show great importance to mitigate and adapt potential heat risks. The findings in this study could also be expended to other tropical regions experiencing rapid urbanisation.

Wenhui He, Liqing Zhang, Chao Yuan, Future air temperature projection in high-density tropical cities based on global climate change and urbanization – a study in Singapore, Urban Climate, Volume 42, 2022, 101115, ISSN 2212-0955, external pagehttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101115

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